Media growth forecasts, particularly in a technological climate where the methods of media delivery change by the nanosecond, can often be grandiose in their predictions. And with so many research companies proffering so many variations on the same theme, the results can be as tedious as, say, an entire album of Macarena
One such exception, however, could be Veronis Suhler Stevenson
‘s Communications Industry Forecast. Roughly the size of a September Vogue, this year’s version is packed with, yes, some grandiose predictions, but some pretty relevant ones too. Among them:
ﾕ The average person will consume 10 hours of media a day by 2009, with home video, consumer Internet and wireless media predicted to see the largest hourly gains.
ﾕ Advertising spending in consumer magazines;forecast to grow 5.5 percent 2004-2009;is expected to come under further pressure from “newer media.”
ﾕ Growth in b-to-b expenditures will be modest, as decreased circulation spending will offset gains in advertising spending.
ﾕ Overall b-to-b magazine spending will grow at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate, 2005-2009.
ﾕ Spending on trade shows and events will increase at 5.8 percent compound annual rate, 2005-2009.
ﾕ E-media will continue to be the fastest growing subsegment of the b-to-b media market, with projected growth of 26.5 percent in 2005.
ﾕ Custom publishing spending is expected to grow at double digit rates annually due to interest in “establishing solid business relationships” and a transition from short newsletters to four-color magazines.
ﾕ Internet advertising, driven by keyword search ads and rich media, is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 24 percent over the next five years.
ﾕ Product placement spending is expected to grow at 14.9 percent annual rate across all media;though slightly less so (12.9 percent) in “other media,” the segment including magazines. However, “other media” is the only segment forecast to have an increased annual rate, with the compound rates of TV and film product placement declining when compared to the 5-year period between 1999 and 2004.